The IT project took twice as long as planned. The construction project to expand the plant went over budget.
Why does this always happen?
Too many decisions are made with too much self-confidence and too much optimism. As a result, poor decisions are made and objectives are not realized. The decision-making flaw in all these situations is that we do not consider the ‘base rate.’
The base rate represents the statistical average of what happened previously – what were the actual results for people who made similar decisions in the past.
“Predictions are difficult – especially about the future.”
When continuous improvement is a fundamental part of our company culture, our business gets better every day and will soon out-run and out-perform the competition. Over 100 years ago, Henry Ford wrote:
As I write this blog, we are in the midst of the Covid-19 Pandemic. Each day brings changes to how and where we can conduct business; we have little visibility into what the next month, three months, or six months will bring; and many of our employees are fearful.
The consultant, Stan Sipes, once commented:
“There are smart decisions and wise decisions. And one form of wisdom is the ability to judge when to let luck disrupt our plans. Not all time in life is equal. The question is, when the unequal moment comes, do we recognize it, or just let it slip? Jim Collins (Great by Choice)
Successful leaders make good decisions… consistently.
“It’s not always what we say; often it’s what we allow the other person to say. By listening, we gain trust and make other people feel more comfortable with us.” Rick Pitino
Strategic thinking skills differentiate middle-level managers from effective upper level leaders. With excellent strategic thinking skills, the leader is able to make effective decisions that benefit their companies in both the short and long term.
Hawaiians and other Polynesians are the descendants of peoples who traveled by boat from East Asia to settle their islands. Those most likely to survive the long and arduous journey were those with “thrifty genes”. They were those ancestors who were best able to process and use the limited food on their boat trips. Today, in a world of cheap and plentiful food, these same “thrifty genes” have led to an epidemic of obesity and diabetes among their descendants. What worked in one time may not work in another.
Even as leaders, we all have bosses. Perhaps, it is a Vice-President. Perhaps, it is the CEO. Perhaps, it is the Board of Directors.
In corporate America, approximately $100 billion is spent each year on training. Yet, many studies show that training is only 10% – 15% effective. As Harvard Business School Professor Michael Beer writes, this is…
Idea Summary
“The world is changing faster than ever before.”
To move our companies forward, we need to experiment. We need to try out new products, new sales/ marketing strategies, new processes, and new leadership styles. We cannot be certain if all of these will work. But, to not experiment means that our companies stagnate.
“In a minute, there is time for decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse.”
Guilty as charged!! I confess that I do, at times, micromanage.
Several years ago, a medical surgeon, Atul Gawande, wrote a best-selling book, 
Our words matter.