I recently listened to a course titled Understanding Complexity.  A key takeaway from the course is that the tools we use for regular problem solving do not fully work with complex problems. 

In regular problem solving, we determine the root cause of the problem, consider the best solution by determining which solution will give the highest expected value, we then implement that solution, and solve the problem once and for all.  Nice, neat and tidy.

This does not and cannot work with complex problems.

What is Different About a Complex Problem?

We encounter complex problems in economics, politics, business, project management, social networks, ecologies, even in understanding our biology.  In each of these situations, there is never one root cause to the problem, and it may not even be possible to determine the relative importance of multiple root causes.  Further, the problem involves actors or events that are connected, interdependent, and make their own decisions.  So, any action will change the actions or events and change the nature of the problem – a complex problem keeps evolving.  In the course, they called it ‘dancing landscapes’ that change constantly.

How to Approach Complex Problems?

Despite the challenges of complexity, we still need to move our countries, our businesses, and our lives forward.  Below I provide suggestions on how we can approach complex problems.

Be Humble:  We need to be humble about what we can do.  We are not going to find the answer to a complex problem.  Certainly, we need to realize that any simple answer is nearly certainly going to be wrong.  As the American Political Economist Charles Lindblom wrote (back in 1959):

A wise policy maker consequently expects that his policies will achieve only part of what he hopes and at the same time will produce unintended consequences he would have preferred to avoid.

Be Confident: We need to be confident that we can and will move forward even without ‘solving’ the root cause.  We can make the problem less onerous or easier to avoid.  Or we can make the problem easier to deal with.

While we may never be able to fully solve society’s big problems such as inequality or racism, we can make great progress by treating the symptoms and negative effects that these problems create.

Think Small: Big solutions are almost always incorrect solutions leading inevitably to unintended consequences.  Even if correct, big solutions may be impossible to implement – great in theory; but falling short in practice.  In discussing the excellent work done to improve aviation safety, United Airlines Executive Ed Halliday wrote:

Everybody was looking for the home run that solved all of the accidents.  The more we got down to it, the things that had the biggest impact were base hits.

Simplify: A first step should be to simplify the current conditions.  This will often mean looking at current laws, policies and practices and adjusting or deleting them to make a complex situation just that bit simpler.  As my old boss, Jim Schack, would say:

Sometimes, it is not what you add to a situation or problem, but what you take away that makes a difference.

Focus Intently on the Objectives and Incentives of Those Involved:  As written above, what makes complex problems complex is that there are actors involved who make their own decisions.  We can never take these actors for granted and need to focus on the decisions that they make and why they make these decisions.

Most government laws, tax breaks, and regulations fail on this point.  They are obscure, difficult to understand, and vague so the intended beneficiaries do not begin to take advantage of them while others with the financial and legal training use the vagueness to create a loophole to capitalize on something that was not intended for them.

Gradual and Incremental: The concepts of continuous improvement are fundamental to addressing complex problems.  We focus on a small, definable element of the problem, resolve that element, and then focus on the next element.  With these series of incremental changes, we avoid making lasting mistakes and continue to move the needle forward.

Let Good Enough Be Good Enough:  As we implement continual improvements, we reach a point of diminishing marginal benefit – it is no longer worth the time, money, and effort to keep improving.  That is O.K.  We just need to focus on another higher leverage issue.  Letting good enough be good enough avoids the striving for maximal efficiency.  With maximal efficiency, we often create a system that is too rigid and fragile and in danger of breaking. 

Countless manufacturing companies experienced this issue during Covid-19 with their just-in-time supply chains that were too optimal.  They thus did not have buffers and slack in their system and came apart due to the initial disruptions from Covid.

Conclusion

Complex problems are fundamentally different from simple problems.  While we may never discover and solve the root cause of the problem, we can use the approaches listed here to move forward and improve our nations, our businesses, and our lives despite these complex problems.